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Iranian Thinking

Good analysis from Juan Cole:

    It seems to me very likely that Iran will get a nuclear weapon. Any ruling elite in the global south with bad relations with the US can look at the difference between how the Bush administration dealt with Saddam and how it has dealt with North Korea. The difference seems mainly to be that North Korea already had a couple of nukes, whereas Iraq was not anywhere close. So Khamenei would look at that and decide that his government needs a couple of nukes to avoid being overthrown by the US, especially since Bush telegraphed his intention to do just that. I don’t see how it could be stopped militarily; the US is overstretched and in no position to attack and occupy Iran.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, June 23rd, 2004 at 1:31 pm and is filed under International Pol.. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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