Oil has always been top of Bush’s foreign-policy agenda:
October 7 2002
As the United States prepares for war with Iraq, a report commissioned early in George Bush’s presidency has surfaced, showing that the US knew it was running out of oil and foreshadowing the possible need for military intervention to secure supplies.
The report forecasts an end to cheap and plentiful fuel, with the energy industry facing “the beginning of capacity limitations”.
Prepared by the influential Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations and the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, it urged the Bush Administration to admit “these agonising truths to the American people”.
Strategic Energy Policy Challenges for the 21st Century, written early last year, was a policy document used to shape the new administration’s energy policy.
It applauded the creation of Vice-President Dick Cheney’s energy task force to address the creation of specific energy plans, and suggested it consider including representation from the Department of Defence.
Saying “there is no alternative” and “there is no time to waste”, the document projects periods of exploding US energy prices, economic recession and social unrest unless answers are found.
It suggests that a minimum three to five years is needed to find a solution, and says a “reassessment of the role of energy in American foreign policy” is called for, with access to oil repeatedly cited as a “security imperative”.
The involvement of the Council of Foreign Relations in the report’s preparation adds weight to its findings. The council ranks as one of the most influential groups in US political circles, with members including Mr Cheney and the former secretaries of state Henry Kissinger and James Baker.
The report also explodes the myth that the US is insulated from Middle East oil supply problems because it receives the bulk of its oil from less volatile sources outside the Persian Gulf. It says Middle East pricing and supply trends “will affect energy costs around the globe regardless”.