The Infinite War and its Roots by Stan Goff:
World oil consumption right now is about 75 million barrels per day. By 2010, that is expected to increase to 100 million barrels per day. This oil is produced by two major groups, let’s say, for the purpose of analysis — OPEC and non-OPEC (NOPEC). OPEC is largely concentrated in the Persian Gulf region. NOPEC is the North Atlantic, North America, Mexico, China, Nigeria, and so forth. That doesn’t tell the whole story, though. Gulf states’ oil does not peak in production until 2012, and half the world’s remaining easily extractable oil is there. World production is peaking right now. But world production is an average. NOPEC peaked several years ago, now being in permanent decline.
So, OPEC is getting stronger, and NOPEC is getting weaker.
Saudi Arabia — an OPEC nation — is the biggest pool, with Iraq next, and the Caspian Sea region a theoretical third (but this is very much in doubt ). The U.S. has for years been trying to ensure domination of OPEC, and they have accomplished that to some degree by ensuring the corrupt Saudis and others through those aforementioned investments. Given that OPEC production is still rising and NOPEC is in permanent irreversible decline, OPEC is regaining dominance in the overall oil market. The point at which OPEC regains definitive domination of world markets is called by some the “crossover event.”
Best predictions are that the “crossover event” will happen around 2011 . This is certainly understood by the current Bush Administration, which is heavily populated by members of the petroleum oligarchy.
Should forces hostile to U.S. imperialism (for whatever reason) gain control over the Gulf States and its oil, they would effectively control the lifeblood of the entire global economic system. U.S. hegemony would collapse in an historical instant. Compared to this scenario, Sept. 11 was a walk in the park. And the U.S. ruling class, especially the current petroligarchy administration, knows this.
Since world oil production begins to decline on average almost immediately, the U.S. as the biggest end user needs to figure out how to compensate for the losses being sustained in NOPEC production. Their solution, from what we can see now, may be to open the Caspian and accelerate extraction from the Gulf States, particularly Saudi and Iraq. But the most optimistic scenarios are that all three regions combined, might put out an additional 15 million barrels per day. Given that our extrapolated appetite will go up 25 million barrels per day within nine years, provided there is no economic collapse that truncates demand, the U.S. remains in a dilemma.