Stratfor had a good analysis of what they think Al Quaeda is up to. Unfortunately, you’ll need a subscription to read the article. It’s thirty bucks for six months if you’re a student.
Al Qaeda never ceases to surprise. However, when we look through its eyes, we can begin to see the reasons behind its relative inaction over the past months and the reason why it will not take massive risks until it has to. It is building credibility in the Islamic world and creating tension between the United States and Muslim countries.
Al Qaeda has reorganized and redeployed. From its point of view, there is no rush. It will hit when it feels it has the need and ability. If the United States cannot destroy a few thousand men, that will be all the proof al Qaeda needs that Washington is a paper tiger. Survival is the key. The rest will grow from there.
The public obsession with Al Quaeda could backfire just as the article states. So much of a nation’s power is tied up with perception. If the US is perceived as incapable of dealing with this monster they helped to create they will lose a lot of credibility. That may be part of what’s behind the upcoming invasion of Iraq. The US is desperate to demonstrate that it can still blow things up and kill the people they want to kill.