Society – Page 4 – Letter Never Sent

Society — Comments Off
16
May 07

Americans moving on to greener pastures?

Interesting article on recent demographic changes. Many of the large cities are starting to look like the third world in terms of class division:

This is something few would have predicted 20 years ago. Americans are now moving out of, not into, coastal California and South Florida, and in very large numbers they’re moving out of our largest metro areas. They’re fleeing hip Boston and San Francisco, and after eight decades of moving to Washington they’re moving out. The domestic outflow from these metro areas is 3.9 million people, 650,000 a year. High housing costs, high taxes, a distaste in some cases for the burgeoning immigrant populations–these are driving many Americans elsewhere.

The result is that these Coastal Megalopolises are increasingly a two-tiered society, with large affluent populations happily contemplating (at least until recently) their rapidly rising housing values, and a large, mostly immigrant working class working at low wages and struggling to move up the economic ladder. The economic divide in New York and Los Angeles is starting to look like the economic divide in Mexico City and SÃ£o Paulo.

Democratic politicians like to decry what they describe as a widening economic gap in the nation. But the part of the nation where it is widening most visibly is their home turf, the place where they win their biggest margins (these metro areas voted 61% for John Kerry) and where, in exquisitely decorated Park Avenue apartments and Beverly Hills mansions with immigrant servants passing the hors d’oeuvres, they raise most of their money.

It looks like middle class Americans are moving out to where you can balance a lower cost of living and available cheap housing with decent wages.

Domestic inflow has been a whopping 19% in Las Vegas, 15% in the Inland Empire (California’s Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, where much of the outflow from Los Angeles has gone), 13% in Orlando and Charlotte, 12% in Phoenix, 10% in Tampa, 9% in Jacksonville. Domestic inflow was over 200,000 in the Inland Empire, Phoenix, Atlanta, Las Vegas and Orlando. These are economic dynamos that are driving much of America’s growth. There’s much less economic polarization here than in the Coastal Megalopolises, and a higher percentage of traditional families: Natural increase (the excess of births over deaths) in the Interior Boomtowns is 6%, well above the 4% in the Coastal Megalopolises.

The nation’s center of gravity is shifting: Dallas is now larger than San Francisco, Houston is now larger than Detroit, Atlanta is now larger than Boston, Charlotte is now larger than Milwaukee. State capitals that were just medium-sized cities dominated by government employees in the 1950s–Sacramento, Austin, Raleigh, Nashville, Richmond–are now booming centers of high-tech and other growing private-sector businesses. San Antonio has more domestic than immigrant inflow even though the border is only three hours’ drive away. The Interior Boomtowns generated 38% of the nation’s population growth in 2000-06.

The Earth is expanding?

My brother sent me this mind-blowing video explaining how the accepted plate tectonics (continental drift) theory is all wrong. The video argues that the earth is in fact expanding. In other words, the continents are not moving around like sheets of ice in the ocean, rather they’re being pushed apart by an expanding earth and unlike in continental drift theory, there is no subduction of plates into the mantle only a gradually increasing planetary surface.

It sounds crazy, but Neal Adams makes a pretty good visual case for it. I’m skeptical because if this theory were true it would change everything. Although, it could answer an earlier entry where I wondered why gigantism seems so common in prehistory and yet not so common today. If the earth were smaller, more like Mars, animals would be able to grow to enormous size due to lighter local gravity. At the risk of sounding like an idiot, this is the same reason Mars has mountains and canyons that are miles high and deep. It’s easier for things to stand out higher when gravity is less of a burden. Although, if the mass of the smaller earth and the larger earth is the same, the gravity should be the same as well, correct?

For there to be greater local gravity over time the earth would have to either increase in mass due to some unknown phenomenon or matter would have to accrete from outer space, maybe as a result of cataclysmic meteor strikes or comet impacts. Also, if you view the video, you’ll see that there is little ocean in their visualization. Does this mean the oceans were much deeper in the past or that there was less water? Assuming their theory is valid, could the additional mass and additional water be accounted for by the impact of a giant icey comet? I don’t have the answers, but I’d like to see a refutation of the expanding earth theory.

Of course, Wikipedia has a good article explaining everything including my puzzlement at dinosaur size:

The primary objection to Expanding Earth Theory centered around the lack of a accepted process by which the Earth’s radius could increase. This issue, along with the rise of the theory of Subduction, caused the scientific community to dismiss the geological evidence Carey and others presented. The evidence for continental matching even on the Pacific facing sides became irrelevant, as did the claims that a smaller sized and lower gravity Earth facilitated the growth of dinosaurs to their relatively enormous size.

Here’s a question, if everything in the universe were increasing in size at the same rate, how would we know? This is Adams’ basic thesis, that the entire universe is growing:

Adams believes his theory presents a more concise and comprehensive reading of available scientific evidence which indicates the universe is growing, not exploding or merely expanding. Along with other Expanding Earth researchers and enthusiasts, he utilizes the internet to encourage discussions of it and disseminates his theory to the scientific community and wider audiences.

Crazy.

General / Personal / Religion/philosophy — Comments Off
08
May 07

Joy not happiness

We focus a lot of energy on being happy, or trying to be happy, but maybe this is the wrong way to look at it. If we want to have a good life, we should instead focus our energies on joy.

What’s the difference? To me, the concept of happiness implies a state of being, we either are or we’re not happy. Happiness is an elusive feeling that vanishes upon reflection. We are most happy in moments when we don’t dwell too deeply. The concept of happiness itself is passive. It comes from the Middle English word for “luck” and still carries this connotation of being a state or feeling that is visited upon you rather than a conscious state of mind. To seek happiness is to seek something out of your control and maybe beyond your reach.

Joy is a better word. It comes from the Latin for “to rejoice”. It carries that original meaning of appreciation and recognition of the good that is around you. Joy is a mental state of pleasure in what is. Happiness does not seem to have this same active meaning. When we seek happiness, we seek some positive internal change from outside ourselves, rather than change ourselves to adapt to the external.

As I was writing this I was reminded of a hymn they used to sing when I was a boy, it’s based on Isaiah 55:12. I found a nice blog entry on a similar subject.

General / Society — Comments Off
01
May 07

A new way of living

Matt Haughey of Metafilter fame has started an interesting new blog called Fortuitous where he will be sharing tips on how to run your business online. He will be writing a new essay every Monday. It will no doubt be worth following.

The Internet is changing the way we live. Over the past couple of years web applications have matured and the Internet has expanded into every corner of our lives through smartphones and laptops, providing a new way to life for millions of people. A life where you can use technology to make yourself more efficient, more connected, and more mobile.

The great thing about technology is that is has benefited so many. In recent years, the number of one person businesses has exploded. With the use of the Internet, automation, and virtual assistants, one person can run a successful business anywhere in the world. As Timothy Ferriss says in his book, The 4-Hour Work Week: “Fun things happen when you earn dollars, live on pesos, and compensate in rupees, but thatâ€™s just the beginning.”

If you really want to be free of the grind, you can do it. You have everything you need. You just need to go for it.

General / Psychology / Society — Comments Off
23
Apr 07

Thoughts on Virginia Tech and tragedy in general

The Virginia Tech massacre is upsetting on many levels.

One, it is troubling to think that there are people so deranged and miserable that their preferred solution to life’s suffering is to perpetuate mortal violence on others who have done them no actual harm. Insanity can be the only rationale behind such stupidity. Insanity is stupidity, in a sense, ie. being out of touch with Reality / Truth.

Two, we have no adequate solutions for the insane / dangerously stupid. We only do something about it after something bad happens. Virginia Tech should be a wake up call that we need to get more involved in detecting these people before they kill. On the other hand, there is no real way to prevent this sort of thing. The mass murderers of the world act by violating the most basic principles of Society. There is no way to legislate against someone who is willing to violate the very concept of morality, you can only make it more difficult to do so.

Three, I am glad to see the flags at half-mast for the victims of Virginia Tech. It is a heartening symbol of respect. However, it must be difficult for the families of the victims, not only for their terrible loss, but also because the world eventually moves on and forgets, leaving them to their grief, which can never be forgotten.

Society / Software / Internet / Technology — 1 Comment
09
Apr 07

The phone is the platform

In a few short years, the “smartphone” will be the de facto personal computer: connected, mobile, and fully integrated into Life. Desktops will never go away completely, but 90% of what you do will be done from your phone: email, photography, video, voice, instant messaging, music, gps and mapping, web surfing, etc. All of these things are currently possible with existing products such as the Blackberry and the Palm Treo. The smartphone platform will succeed because it frees you from your desk.

This will lead to a huge shift in business and in life. Already the boundaries are blurring between work and home life. With ready access to the Internet, workers are bringing life into the workplace and the workplace is bringing work into the rest of your life. Rules and custom will adapt to meet this new reality. Ultimately, I believe it will foster a flexibility and connectedness that will be good for both employees and business.

There is a war brewing to see who will ride the wave of society’s shift toward full mobile computing. It will be interesting to see how the landscape changes. In ten years, I think we will always be connected wirelessly through our personal communication device. It will likely still be called a ‘phone’, but it will do everything you need. It will integrate with various systems at work, in the car, at home, and everywhere else. Desktop computers may exist only as specialized devices to amplify computing power or display output. Your personal device will connect to larger screens, full keyboards and specialized input devices, as well as networked cameras, sensors, and storage. But, all your files will exist in one place and your phone will be your tether to the rest of the world.

The necessary conditions for this shift:

Ubiquitous high-speed Internet access: Wifi, EVDO, EDGE, Ultra Wide Band, etc. networks will eventually connect everyone.
Networked and online storage.
Mobile apps: web 2.0 stuff like Gmail, Flickr, etc. and specialized apps built for the smartphone.

Some businesses are in better position than others to benefit.

The businesses on offense:

Smartphone companies, primarily Research in Motion – The maker of the wildly successful Blackberry is in good position. They’re very competitive and have made it easier for developers to develop products for the Blackberry. They’ve also continued to add good features like built-in GPS, camera, and media capabilities. They’re the current 800-lb gorilla and their margins are superior since they build everything in house rather than outsourcing to third parties.
The cellular carriers: Verizon, Cingular (AT&T), and T-Mobile – Any mobile computing scenario will depend on the carriers. I think more people will move to broadband-over-cellular versus WiFi. A cellular Internet connection is persistent, more secure than WiFi, and personal. No need to find hotspots or worry about someone sniffing your WiFi traffic. It’s ideal for mobile computing and complements the current cellular voice network.
Microsoft – Windows Mobile is rapidly becoming the default OS for commodity level smartphones like the HTC handsets. This could be the entry point for many consumers.
Google / Yahoo! – Both Google and Yahoo! have been very supportive of mobile computing. Google has produced several applications especially for smartphones including versions of Google Maps, Google Reader, Gmail, and Google Talk. Any web company who caters to handhelds will stand to benefit.

The businesses on defense:

GPS device manufacturers – GPS is quickly becoming a commodity product. Soon GPS chips and software will be available on all phones, cameras, video cameras, etc. Grabbing GPS coordinates will just be another basic function, like a temperature reading. Why carry multiple devices when you can have one that integrates into everything else? Companies like Garmin and TomTom are already anticipating this shift and are trying desperately to enter the smartphone market. They are unlikely to be successful.
Apple – Apple created one of the first truly successful mobile devices, the iPod. The iPod did not succeed because it is the best device ever, it succeeded because Apple was the first serious company to really get behind downloadable music. They sensed the consumer appetite and they bet on it. I remember back in the old days when you had to find a CD player that would play mp3’s. No one really took it seriously even though people had been downloading mp3’s since 1996-1997. Apple saw the potential and moved in before anyone else. This is why they succeeded, not because they make the best products in the world. Everyone else was just asleep at the wheel after the fall of Napster. Apple is extremely vulnerable right now. They have the same problem the GPS companies have in that their bread and butter is quickly becoming just another application. When you can get your music and video on your phone or over the network why would you use Apple? The iPhone is pretty, but I think it will be a marginal success at best. Unlike with mp3 players, the smartphone market is very competitive. Apple had to ‘redefine’ the device to keep from looking like a late arrival, so they added a touch screen. While being a creative interface, it is nothing more than a gimmick. The iPhone is a toy aimed at consumers. At this point, it is not serious.
Low-end camera makers (point and shoot) – Like with GPS and media capabilities, photography and video are becoming just embedded capabilities. The camera will just be another sensory input on your phone. Already, the high-end smartphones provide 1.5-2 megapixel cameras built-in with flash and zoom. People are becoming accustomed to taking photos and shooting them to friends or across the web.
Handheld game makers – Most people want basic games. In a mobile setting, these games will be played on smartphones. Already several game companies like Magmic are specializing in developing games for the mobile environment.
Satellite anything – Satellite radio, satellite internet, satellite television is too expensive to launch and too difficult to upgrade to newer hardware. It’s much easier to just expand network coverage to where 90% of the people are. As soon as cars are connected to the wireless cellular networks with access to the Internet and media, they will replace satellite-based alternatives. Satellite radio is already starting to receive competition from terrestial broadcasters in the form of HD radio. The sound quality of satellite radio is notoriously bad. Add online radio to the mix and they’re doomed. I have a feeling satellite radio subscriber numbers are heavily inflated given that I cancelled my XM radio account over a year ago and yet it still miraculously works. In light of this shift to “connected media”, the recent royalty increases for online broadcasting make sense as barriers against non-commercial players.

In conclusion, any business that is not connected to the central personal communication device (the “phone”) and to the network is vulnerable. It’s very difficult to accurately predict the future, however I believe the trend to mobile computing that started with laptops and iPods will culminate in a fully portable, connected voice, media and data device.

Society — Comments Off
21
Mar 07

What we can learn from American Idol

Christopher Ames pinpoints the appeal of American Idol. Our narcissistic culture has has created a hunger for meaning. We all know that there is a larger world beyond ourselves, yet consumer culture constantly reassures us that we matter more than anything else and that our freedom (freedom to satisfy our desires) is important. I am reminded of the Frank Herbert quotation: “Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty.”

Chron of Higher ed.: Schooled by ‘American Idol’:

What lessons about popular attitudes toward grading and evaluation emerge from American Idol’s auditions? First, a belief in genuine standards: We may at times disagree about whether a performance is good or bad, but extreme examples remind us that those differences in taste exist within that shared context of what counts as “in tune,” an agreement about what ultimately is a credible performance. In fact, in one episode Cowell challenged an angry, spurned contestant to go into a local shopping mall and find three people who would testify that he sang well (the contestant didn’t succeed). It was as if a disgruntled student had shown his graded paper to a random assortment of his peers, only to find them endorsing his teacher’s assessment.

Second, the show reveals a respect for expertise. Along with the estimable pop credentials of the regular judges, celebrity guest judges demonstrate how skill and training inform good evaluation. A similar respect for professorial authority characterizes the academic landscape. Amid all the attacks on higher education today, America remains a culture that puts great stock in expert opinions.

Third, the auditions reveal that individuals are often not good judges of their own ability. Again and again, the judges mirror audience incredulity at poor performers who think they are great. The simple reality that professors encounter all the time emerges with clarity: People aren’t objective about themselves. But more than that, most people are not astutely self-critical or even open to constructive appraisal. Learning how to learn from coaching and criticism can be a challenge â€” and, ultimately, the most successful contestants (like successful students) do just that and improve notably in the course of the season or semester. We call it education.

General / Society / Software / Internet / Technology — 5 Comments
13
Mar 07

I don’t get Twitter

Twitter is this website where anyone can post what they’re doing right now. You can post to Twitter from your cell phone, computer, email, Wii, etc. It’s like a group MySpace page or something, which I don’t get either. The usual sorts are drinking the kool-aid and posting every time they get a coffee or do something at SXSW. Does anyone really want to know everything I think or do in the course of my daily life? Do you enjoy knowing what all your friends are doing? Maybe I’m the weird one.

It seems like Twitter is MySpace/Facebook/Bebo for the more sociable, blogging nerds. It’s new and it’s social. Those seem to be the important qualities.

One of the problems I have with the web is that novelty-seekers (or, as they proclaim themselves, “early adopters”) tend to talk a lot and often and thus seem to wield a strange influence by creating excitement about new, cool things. Often through sheer volume of activity, the novelty locusts latch onto something good and worthwhile. But, in the case of Twitter, I don’t think so.

In a way, it reminded me of the “cat in ur _____” meme, except twitter will not make you laugh. So, I did this image of cats using twitter, which makes just as much sense as people using it.

See also:

General / Religion/philosophy / Society — 2 Comments
09
Mar 07

Sensible Mass Transit

Sitting in traffic is aggravating because it frustrates freedom of movement. You sit with thousands of other people in an environment walled in by painted lines, concrete and exhaust; an environment where you must be vigilant enough to avoid an accident but are otherwise denied freedom except what is possible within the constraints of limited attention and movement. If you could divert your attention, it would be less frustrating, but you must face forward and wait in line. Traffic is life as tedium.

We should continue to improve mass transit and the highway system, to solve many of the problems with the usual mass transit paradigm:

The right target demographic: With the exception of trains and subways in the Northeast, mass transit is rarely designed with the middle-class in mind. This is why it is seldom successful or popular. It is almost always subsidized with taxes and fares targeted at low-income users. This is a recipe for mediocrity since you will never have an easy time with revenue, quality, or service. The working commuter should be the focus of mass transit. It is always more successful to bring the lower end consumer up than to force the higher end consumer down.
Support commuting, not a car-less lifestyle: Residential bus routes are inefficient and do not make sense for the average commuter. Even with residential routes, you have to walk from your house to the bus stop, which is often inconvenient to anyone but the most desperate or car-less. Greater emphasis should be placed on servicing common junctions where large numbers of residential drivers enter the highways because this is where traffic is congested. High-volume transit stations with adequate parking could be placed along major highways, especially closer to remote suburbs where traffic enters the funnel.
Partnerships with business: We need to get creative with how to fund mass transit, while at the same time adding value for the end-user. For example, take advantage of any wait time by sharing transit stations with businesses focused on the busy commuter. Get coffee or breakfast, leave your car to be washed and lubed while you’re at work, get new tires, buy a newspaper or an iPod, surf the Internet. With just a few businesses it could turn the commute into time well spent.
Demand-based tollways: I’m a big fan of toll roads provided they are managed properly. However, the purpose of the toll system should be convenience, not as a replacement for normal conduits through the city. If I’m on a toll road, I expect there to rarely be traffic. With automated payment systems already in place, tollways should increase tolls automatically as traffic becomes more congested. The goal should be to maintain a 50 mph flow. If this drops, the tolls should go up. Another alternative is to increase tolls during normal rush hours. This will create an added incentive for some people to travel outside these hours. It is silly to have a toll system that is empty most of the time and only heavily used during rush hours.
Promote central density: Tolls should also start out more expensive in the suburbs and decrease as you enter central city areas. This way you pay more the further away you are from the city since these commuters cause the most congestion as they are on the highway longer. This is a good check against the suburban sprawl that afflicts many areas.

the old stuff