Geopolitical forecast

Yesterday, after swimming and sunning like an iguana at Barton Springs pool my roommate and his girlfriend intercepted me on my walk home. They were on their way to Star of India for buffet and invited me along. There I found a copy of this free magazine, Little India (Apparently, “the largest circulated Indian publication in the USA”). Anyway, in it there were a few interesting things, interviews with assorted Indian Americans and Indian expatriots. There was this particular interview with Dr. Jagdish Sheth who’s evidently a marketing guru of sorts. His rags to riches and reknown story was interesting, but what was more interesting were his predictions as to where the world would be in the next 20-30 years. I took the liberty of scanning it in for you:

    Which one of your predictions have come true and is there one that you wish you had not made?

    I had predicted in the late 80s and early 90s that India will have no choice but
    to align with America and that has come true though I had expected the two
    countries to have an economic alignment first followed by a military alignment, but it happened the other way round.

    I had also projected in the early 90s that China will become the biggest
    economic and military super power by 2020 and that is coming true. In the short
    term, the Europeans will be distancing themselves from America and they will align with Russia and Russia will become a major force in northern Europe, which will exclude Spain and Britain.

    Britain any way does not belong in
    Europe, since the French and Germans will
    align. Britain may feel unwanted so there
    will be interesting economic battles.

    The one prediction that did not come
    true was that in the 1970s I was very
    hopeful that there would be a permanent
    solution for Palestine, but then first Anwar
    Sadat and then Rabin were assassinated.
    Now I am saying there will be a permanent
    distance between the Middle East and
    America, and the Middle East will align
    more and more with Europe.

    So where are we headed post war?

    I have slightly different views on that
    than most people. I think we will win the
    battle of Baghdad but we will not win the
    war. There will be a next phase of peace in
    the Middle East, orchestrated by the
    creation of the state of Palestine, something
    George Bush Sr. had strived for. The real
    tension will be between America and the
    European nations and Asia simultaneously.
    The French-German coalition with
    Russians will create more economic and
    political problems for America and I had
    predicted that NATO will cease and that
    Japan has given up on America and will
    align with China.

    What role will the Indian American
    community play in the mainstream?

    After independence, India decided to
    invest in medicine and engineering. Now
    they feel its more lucrative to invest in
    management and information technology.
    Many Indian multinational firms will
    groom top managers of Indian origin, and
    many of these multinational firms will
    enter the world market.

    Because of the military and economic
    alignment, American govt. will allow more
    Indians to settle in America and vice versa
    and free labor mobility will increase the
    Indian population much more than the
    Chinese population here. Indians will
    definitely go into politics since more and
    more Indian Americans are going to law
    school which is a natural progression for
    them to enter politics later. So we will have
    very powerful Indian American lobby,
    surpassing even the Jewish lobby.

    So what is in the works?

    A book on repositioning of India in
    the new millennium.

1 comment

  1. Very entertaining, but presented in this format without a lot of analysis behind it, it reminds me of Nostradamus.

    As for the powerful Indian American lobby, I’ll believe it when I see it. Indians are far more fragmented than the Jews to whom Sheth compares them. Not only in terms of language, religion, etc. but more to the point, in terms of what such a lobby might work toward. About the only issue I can imagine most Indian Americans agreeing on is immigration policy.